Worst Case’ Scenario for Flu Estimated

APTOPIX Hong Kong Swine Flu

There will be about 1,700 U.S. cases of the new H1N1 flu, aka “swine flu,” in the next four weeks under a worst-case scenario, according to a research team’s new simulations.

And a second team working independently, about 200 miles away, on exactly the same question came up with a similar forecast.
As of Thursday, there were 109 lab-confirmed U.S. cases of the new influenza, according to the World Health Organization, which earlier this week raised the risk level of the influenza to one stage below pandemic because the virus is being transmitted within at least two countries in one region of the world. A full pandemic – the virus is also being transmitted within a third country in a different region – is considered imminent.
It is not clear, however, how virulent or deadly this flu strain will become. Flu viruses are unpredictable, and while some in history have proven incredibly deadly, many would-be-pandemics turned out to be quite mild. Also, medicine and public health are more sophisticated today, in terms of treatments and educational campaigns, than they were during the nation’s last pandemic flu in 1968, let alone during the Spanish flu of 1918.
Still, researchers are eager to predict what might happen and Dirk Brockmann has identified the hotspots.
California, Texas and Florida will have most of the cases by late May if Brockmann’s large-scale computer simulations are right. His group at Northwestern University came up with the figure of 1,700 cases by late May, and also projected more than 100 cases for the Chicago area.
“Remember – that’s exponential growth, which means slow at the beginning and then very fast,” Brockmann said. “If you run the worst-case scenario for four months, we’re at a very different number.”
Brockmann’s computer clusters can be used to simulate an infectious disease that spreads among 300 million people. The approach was based on human mobility patterns – daily commuting, intermediate trips and long-distance ones – which helps determine how a disease could potentially spread, and he modeled those on data from a dollar-bill tracking project called WheresGeorge.com. You can track people’s movements, to a certain extent, if you know where they spend cash.
“These networks play an important role in the spread of infectious disease,” he said. “So we’re looking at how people travel in the United States and Europe and trying to find a theory behind human traffic. Then we can unravel the structures within these networks and explain them.”
Brockmann says his forecast is off by a little bit, and that’s a good thing. His worst-case scenario assumes that no measures have been taken by officials and public health agencies to combat the spread of disease. Most likely, the case count will be lower than his estimate as a result of such things as stronger public health campaigns for hand washing and social distancing (stand far away from people who are coughing and sneezing), school closures where children are found to be symptomatic and the federal travel advisory against non-essential trips to Mexico.

Brockmann and his team’s swine flu results match up well with those of a research group at Indiana University in Bloomington led by computer scientist Alex Vespignani. The teams were aware of each other’s work but intentionally worked independently and remained ignorant of each other’s methodology to see if they arrived at the same results. When scientists independently arrive at the same result, it suggests they have a finding that is “robust,” that is it will stand the test of time.
“When we look at the numbers, they are in stunning agreement,” Vespignani told LiveScience. “That is very comforting in the sense that it’s a sign of robustness. Also it suggests that the results we are getting are probably correct.”
The two teams know each other from conferences, but have never specifically collaborated on a published research report, he said.
Of course, the H1N1 flu outbreak is still evolving, he said.
“We have to buy time for the development and distribution of a vaccine, so that is the point, the main issue,” Vespignani said.
Vespignani said his team’s forecast for the number of cases on May 17 is 1,200 (a public version of his results are at www.gleamviz.org). If you project that rate forward to Brockmann’s calculation for late May, when the virus will have spread to even more people, you get a decent alignment, with rounding.

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Movie Review

X-Men Origins: Wolverine

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I once speculated around Oscars season that the fans’ perception of Wolverine’s manliness might be in jeopardy when Hugh Jackman hosted this year’s Academy Awards in true song-and-dance fashion (which he did quite skillfully, I will note). Further threatening potential box-office glory as the release date approached was that the entire film (albeit an unfinished version) was leaked online for all to view for free. And now there’s yet another possible obstacle: this crazy new swine flu scare. Will audiences pack moviehouses and make this film the first summer blockbuster triumph of the year?

The truth is, Jackman worked hard for this role and he is plenty ferocious, so be prepared for a non-stop, action-packed romp featuring one of audiences’ favorite comic book heroes. All critics don’t necessarily agree. Says Robert Wilonsky of the The Village Voice, “Without fail, the dullest installment in any superhero movie franchise is the origin story, during which audiences anxiously awaiting The Big Bad Guy have to suffer through, yaaaawn, scenes of childhood trauma, romantic tragedy, and other expository effluvia, by which point the closing credits are fast approaching.” Keep in mind, however, that the “Iron Man” franchise kicked-off with what was essentially a superhero origin story, and the Batman franchise re-established itself when Christian Bale first filled the suit in “Batman Begins” a few summers ago. Roger Ebert felt this way: “Nothing here about human nature. No personalities beyond those hauled in via typecasting. No lessons to learn. No joy to be experienced. Just mayhem, noise and pretty pictures.” On the other hand, Claudia Puig of the USA Today feels that, “Although it’s a quintessential popcorn movie, ‘Wolverine’ is not mindless. (Director) Gavin Hood and Jackman bring depth to a comic-book tale of anti-heroes with anger issues.”

I get the impression that most critics now believe that every comic book movie should be of the same level of complexity as last year’s mega-hit, “The Dark Knight.” But let’s be honest, summertime fun is about getting away from it all. So if you like cool-looking, big-time action, get yer blockbuster on with your old pal Wolverine.

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Showbiz

Taylor Swift’s Rapid Rise

Guess you can say that Taylor Swift is aptly named.

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While she’s only 19 and hasn’t even begun her first tour as a headliner, Taylor Swift has swiftly risen to the number four spot on Forbes magazine’s just-published list of estimated top earners in country music for 2009.

Of course, after selling more than 4 million CDs last year–a feat that made her the best-selling solo artist of 2008–t’s not really a surprise that Swift made the list, which the business journal puts together by calculating estimates on grosses, merchandise revenue, album sales, and income from endorsement and licensing deals.

With an estimated take-in of $18 million for ’09, she ranks behind only Kenny Chesney ($65 million), Rascal Flatts ($60 million), and Toby Keith ($52 million), and ahead of the likes of Brooks & Dunn and Tim McGraw, who are tied for fifth place with $15 million.

What is surprising is the fact that the teenaged Swift has so quickly crashed through the cowboy hat that is Nashville’s version of the proverbial glass ceiling. All the others in the above list were also in Forbes’ Top Five in 2008, and while much of that is certainly due to country music’s longstanding fanbase allegiances to its established acts, it’s noteworthy that the only other females on the list are Carrie Underwood and Sugarland’s Jennifer Nettles. Both of them are tied for eighth with $14 million behind Brad Paisley ($15 million), with “Elder Statesman” Alan Jackson rounding out the Top Ten with an estimated ’09 haul of $12 million.

It’s also noteworthy that Swift has achieved all this despite being part of a genre whose CD sales fell some 24 percent last year, as country music had the dubious distinction of following only classical music in overall sales drops (the decline for the music industry as whole was 14 percent.)

Still, since the average ticket for a country concert cost far less than comparable acts in rock or pop, the genre is a bit less susceptible to sharp declines in its overall popularity. And those endorsement and merchandising deals, which young Ms. Swift is only first getting a bronco-busting like handle on, are another reason. As veteran industry executive Joe Galante of Sony BMG Nashville points out, country is still regarded as the “music of the people. Marketers are realizing that if you want to reach the mainstream audience–the people that show up for work every day and are raising families–then country needs to be part of the mix.”

And, barring undue influence of friends like Miley Cyrus, as long as she can keep the diva demons away, Ms. Swift just might just keep reshaping the moneymaking side of country music’s good ol’ boy network.

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Desi Girls

Cute girl Nimra from Jhang Pakistan

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She is a student and live in Pakistan city Faisalabad. Her name is Nimra Hifza and now she is doing her nursing course in Jhang Pakistan. She enjoys her life and never mind friends talks.

Nimra likes music playing computer games Reading books watch movies and enjoying with her friends specially Hasham and net friends.

Keep visiting gixmi.com to know more about her.

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Desi Girls

Salma Javid, Humaira and Natasha from Lahore Pakistan

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Salma Khan send us this picture from Lahore and she also send a message / advice. She said that we are friends from last 10 years. I want to share some tips with viewers. What is a friend? It’s somebody who accepts you for what you are and stands by your side through thick and thin. A person can have as many as he wants, but only a few will be your best friend. Out of those few, fewer still are really true friends which are hard to come by these days. Although most of us try to be a good friend – always there to comfort and help out during rough times , celebrate their happiness, or simply hold their hand -there comes a time when you realize that you’ve been holding on too long.

Or you realize that the friendship is not really genuine, but a heavy burden that weighs you down. Letting go of a friend is never easy. Of course, you don’t want to be “that awful person who dumped his friend” ! Real friendships don’t just happen. What you say……

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Desi Girls

Beautiful Girls Eid

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Beautiful collection of Eid special SMS send us with her picture Sobia Rafaqat from Faisalabad.

She is studing in collage and she wish all her friends Reja, Nadia, Semran, Iram etc. See the messages / SMS she send:-

1.
When the sun has set, and day is done-
I’ll break this chain, but only one.
By the end of Ramadan, this whole chain will be all gone!
It’s time for Eid and lots of fun!!!

2.
Eid ul adha is eid of sacrifice, and commitment to Allahs orders,May Allah bless us with the same in all circles of life,and help all amongst us, who r helpless,worried, and waiting for his rehmat, Ameen. Eid Mubarak.

3.
Eid leka aate hai dher sare khusiya,
Eid mita deta hai insan mai duriya,
Eid hai khuda ka ek nayam tabarok
Eisi liye kahte hai sab EID MUBARAK

4.
muj ko chor kr janay walay
mera dil dokhanay walay
bin bataye tm kahan chalay gaye ho
ab to mere khawabon mein bi bus tum he atay ho
agar tm is eid pr na aye
to mera kia banay ga?
main kis tarah ye eid guzaron ga?

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Desi Girls

Friendship is Priceless – Pakistani Babes

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Over the years I have been very blessed by an amazing number of individuals who I class as friends. They come in all sizes, shapes, ages and live in various countries around the world.

The American Heritage Dictionary describes a friend as “one whom you know, like and trust”. Getting to know someone takes time and effort. It requires dialogue and sharing as well as patience and understanding. Developing the friendship can be an interesting adventure which helps you to expand your own perspectives and about issues and cultures.

Liking another person can be an instantaneous experience or take considerable time to achieve. There is very little in life that is more satisfying than to be together with someone you like and to enjoy laughter, companionship, a conversation or a shared hobby.

https://www.gixmi.com

Trust is a vital part of any friendship. If you cannot depend on your friend to tell the truth, be there for you when you need support or defend you to others, than your relationship isn’t really genuine. Friends promise to be there for you and then live up to their word.

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Desi Girls

Aeysha from Multan

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Aysha has sent her picture from Multan. She is completing her masters in Bahauddin Zakariya University. Bahauddin Zakariya University is one of Pakistan’s major universities. She has sent us a lot of photos that we will publish in next few days. She want to make sincere friends.

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